Psychosocial Variables as Prospective Predictors of Violent Events Among Adolescents

Violent events are main causes of mortality among children and include intentional (e.g., homicide) and unintentional (e.g., accidents) circumstances. This study investigated the prediction of the self-reported occurrence of 14 violent events among eighth-grade youth from psychosocial variables measured in these same youth in seventh grade. Psychosocial variables inV iolent events include both intentiona l a nd unintentional sudden occurrences that may result in physical or psychological injury to one or Steve Sussman, PhD is an Associate Professor, University of Southern California, Department of Preventive Medicine, Institute for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Research, Alhambra, CA. Clyde W. Dent, PhD is an Assistant Professor of Research, University of Southern California, Department of Preventive Medicine, Institute for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Research, Alhambra, CA. Alan W. Stacy, PhD, is a Research Assistant Professor, University of Southern California, Department of Preventive Medicine, Institute for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Research, Alhambra, CA. Dee Burton, PhD, is an Associate Professor, The University of fllinois at Chicago, School of Public Health, Prevention Research Center, Chicago, IL. Brian R. Flay, DPhil, is an Associate Professor, The University ofminois at Chicago, School of Public Health, Prevention Research Center, Chicago, IL. Address correspondence to Dr. Steve Sussman, PhD, University of Southern California, Department of Preventive Medicine, Institute for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Research, 1000 South Fremont Ave, Suite 641, Alhambra, CA 91803-1358. eluded tobacco and alcohol use, demographic variables, interpersonal variables such as family conflict, and intrapersonal variables such as risk taking. An iterative procedure, involving selection of a set of predictors and a test of the correlation of the set of predictors to the set of events, provided support for an extension of problem behavior theory to violent events. more persons. Examples of intentional violent events include suicide and homicide attempts. Examples of unintentional vio lent events include accidents. Violent events are the major causes of mortality among children and adolescents. Accidents account for approximately 85% of all violent event-related deaths among children a nd adolescents, whereas intentional violent events (e.g., homicide and suicide) account for the remaining 15%. 1 •2 Motor vehicle -related accidents (as a passenger or as a driver among older adolescents) account for approximately 40% of childhood mortality resulting from violent even ts • and, in order of descending prevalence among 10-to-14-year-olds, drowning, acc idental firing of firearms, burns, homicide, suicide (including drug overdose), falls, poisoning, and choking/ suffocation account for the remainder of childhood violent event-related mortality .1•2 Implementation of preventive measures is imperative given these high r ates.